Evaluating supply risk patterns and supply and demand trends for mineral raw materials: Assessment of the zinc market

Abstract

The economic growth of emerging nations will inevitably require an increasing supply of primary mineral raw materials and metals. Fears about the availability of mineral raw materials have been raised during resource booms in the past and also during the last decade. This chapter refers to a recently developed method for identifying and assessing longterm supply risks and applies it to the case of zinc. By analysing boomand- bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying problematic market situations for zinc supply. This method, which is based on a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach and a numerical evaluation model, makes it possible to identify supply shortage risks at an early stage. On the basis of this market assessment, companies are in a better position to make informed decisions and can use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments.