Institutional resilience and climate variability in international water treaties: the Jordan River Basin as “proof-of-concept”

Abstract

Abstract Climate-driven changes in precipitation distribution have implications for the long-term sustainability of international water-sharing and hydropower agreements. This research analyses water allocation methods, estimates the resilience of existing water supply arrangements, and examines the role of modified institutional arrangements in addressing possible vulnerabilities in transboundary basins. Specifically, we analyse the resilience of the 1994 Israel–Jordan Treaty of Peace during climate extremes. While the absence of a drought provision in the Treaty left Jordan and Israel vulnerable to drought-induced conflict, the Treaty did establish a Joint Water Committee (JWC) to resolve conflicts without making permanent amendments to the original agreement. During the drought of 1998/99, Israeli and Jordanian members of the JWC brokered a temporary arrangement to modify allocations in order to reflect water availability. Even though water availability restricted the parties from fulfilling Treaty obl...