Risks analyzing and management in software project management using fuzzy cognitive maps with reinforcement learning

Abstract

Many projects fail each year simply because a risk has been misjudged, ignored or unidentified. An essential motivation for analyzing the risk of a project is to inform managers in order to reduce the risk, and therefore the loss of the project. Risk analysis can help identify the best actions that would reduce the risk and assess by how much. In the last decades, the Fuzzy Cognitive Map emerged as a powerful tool for modeling and supervising dynamic interactions in complex systems. There is two ways to construct them, the first way by experts of domain and the second way by learning method based on the historical of data. In this paper, we develop a new learning fuzzy cognitive maps based on a reinforcement learning algorithm so called Q-learning and we propose here a new formulation of kosko causality principle. This connection between fuzzy cognitive maps and reinforcement learning allows us to choose based on the historical of data learning process the best and the most important connections between concepts. In this work, we illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by modeling and studying the analysis of project risk management as an economic decision support system.