Assessments of climate change impacts on the terrestrial ecosystem in Japan using the Bio-Geographical and GeoChemical (BGGC) Model

Abstract

This study assessed the future impacts of global climate change on the distribution and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems in Japan using the Bio-Geographical and GeoChemical model (BGGC model). The model enables us to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycles within ecosystems on the basis of estimated potential natural vegetation distribution. In this study, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) and the distribution of potential natural vegetation were evaluated for assessments of climate change impacts. The GCMs experimental data used for future climate conditions were the CSIRO-Mk2 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 for each of A2 and B2 scenarios in the SRES. Comparison of the averages of simulated NPP under each scenario with the average NPP under current climate conditions showed that the average NPP could increase about 19 to 33 percent by the year 2050s and 25 to 53 percent by the year 2080s with changes in potential natural vegetation type.