The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil: Assessment of the degree of dependence, its causes and ways of overcoming

Abstract

This article is an attempt to estimate the impact of the volatility of oil prices on the income of Russian economic entities associated with the oil realization, as well as the importance of the price of oil in stabilizing the exchange rate of the national currency. The authors have analyzed dependencies between the variance of the price of oil, ruble exchange rate against the US dollar and Russian oil export volume and observed the correlation between these indicators. It has been concluded that the problems of the Russian economy are expressed in the loss of dollar revenues from oil sales by 2.37 times in the last five years, which significantly affected the trade balance and served as the basis for the devaluation of the ruble. According to the results of the research, the authors suggest several solutions for raising the price of oil and stabilizing the ruble exchange rate.