Demographic transition in Morocco: An application of Easterlin-Crimmins’s model using DHS data

Abstract

The aim of this study is to shed some light on the dynamics of fertility reduction in the MENA region, analyzing both proximate and latent fertility determinants: DHS data for Morocco from the 2004 round were hence used for this purpose. The main idea behind this application is that the key variable in fertility transition is contraception prevalence and use. The Easterlin-Crimmins method (1985) is a two-stage model of supply and demand. There are two endogenous variables: number of born children (B), and contraception use (U), while the exogenous ones are the costs of regulation, the demand for children, and the proximate determinants of fertility. Results show that contraception is, in fact, the key factor and determinant in fertility transition: ensuring access to contraception is therefore fundamental in reaching the final stage of the transition.