The effect of early flood warnings on mitigation and recovery during the 2010 Pakistan floods

Abstract

We estimate the effect of early warnings on the likelihood of households taking action to mitigate damages before the severe 2010 flood in Punjab, Pakistan. Using a survey of 640 households conducted after the floods, we find that face-to-face warnings significantly increase the probability of households taking any pre-flood mitigation action, while remote warnings such as television and radio announcements do not have a significant effect on taking any mitigation. For the most costly mitigation action of reinforcing the house structure, only warning from government officials or mosques significantly increases the likelihood of action. Receiving a warning and taking mitigation action reduces the actual loss of household structure value, and taking pre-flood mitigation action also significantly increases the likelihood of having recovered household possessions.