Predicting hurricane intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles

Abstract

Eyewall replacement cycles are commonly observed in tropical cyclones and are well known to cause fluctuations in intensity and wind structure. These fluctuations are often large and rapid and pose a significant additional challenge to intensity forecasting, yet there is presently no objective operational guidance available to forecasters that targets, quantifies, and predicts these fluctuations. Here the authors introduce new statistical models that are based on a recently documented climatology of intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles in Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. The model input comprises environmental features and satellite-derived features that contain information on storm cloud structure. The models predict the amplitude and timing of the intensity fluctuations, as well as the fluctuations of the wind structure, and can provide real-time operational objective guidance to forecasters. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.