Understanding Ultra-Low Fertility in Hong Kong

Abstract

At about 1.13 births per woman, Hong Kong has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. With marriage rates declining and a preponderance of families with one or no children, there is concern that the elderly will not have family members to provide care and financial support. As in other advanced Asian economies, young women have made great strides in educational attainment and workforce participation, making marriage—with its primary responsibility for housework, childcare, and elderly care—less attractive. In addition, the high costs of raising a family, including housing and private tutoring for children, lead young adults to postpone marriage or even eschew marriage and parenthood altogether. Young people in Hong Kong do not appear to want more children than they actually have, which suggests that modest government programs to encourage higher fertility would probably not be successful. At any rate, the Hong Kong government, with a historic commitment to low taxes, seems disinclined to introduce any substantive measures aimed at raising fertility. One special feature of fertility and population aging in Hong Kong is the porous border with the rest of the People’s Republic of China. Women from mainland China have come to Hong Kong to give birth, artificially inflating birth rates, and the government has begun encouraging the elderly to retire on the mainland where expenses are lower.