The methodology and mathematical tools to assess and mitigate the risk of creating high-tech products

Abstract

Background/Objectives: This article deals with financial and economic methods for risk neutralization, with risk mitigation, acceptance or transfer being of particular attention. Methods/Statistical Analysis: A management procedure comprised of two stages has been proposed as the principal methodological approach to solve this challenge. At the first stage, an alternative project implementation plan is selected, based on the cost-effectiveness criterion, and risk indicators are considered quality indicators. At the second stage, the risk management procedure that has been proposed by the authors is implemented, using a dedicated financial and production provision. Findings: To account for increasing uncertainty of sci-tech and economic support processes of implementation of programs, plans and projects aiming at developing a knowledge-intensive and high-tech product, principles of forming a new concept of acceptable risk have been justified. This concept exploits capabilities of the new tools to mitigate and compensate any risks arising from financial and economic, scientific and technical, and engineering and manufacturing factors. To assess acceptable innovative project implementation alternatives, an economic and mathematical model has been built up, based on the concept of acceptable risk. The authors have hereby proposed a method of multi-version program or project implementation plan management. This method relies on versions that have been justified and prepared in the course of long-term plan development and are supplemented by potential deviations from the established program path, which occur as a result of various risk conditions. To improve assessment accuracy, risks should be considered at the stage of forming a knowledge-intensive and high tech product development plan a priori or a posteriori. Application/Improvements: The main advantage of the methodology and tools proposed is an ability to develop a new managerial decision-making frame that allows for qualitative synthesis of multiple event scenarios and quantitative analysis of effects.