Some Recent Trends in Population, Employment and Poverty in India: An Analysis

Abstract

Bringing together the results of the NSS 66th Round Employment-Unemployment Survey and the Provisional Population Totals of the 2011 Population Census, we examine the inter-play of demographic change, decisions on schooling and participation in the labour force, and the changes in the economy in shaping the size and structure of employment and the resultant impacts on labour productivity, real wages and poverty among those inside and outside the labour force in India over the period 2005–2010. We also offer a brief discussion on some issues in the mea-surement of poverty in India. A sluggish growth in the total number of workers on UPSS alongside an absolute reduction in the size of female workforce, and in the number of workers in agriculture and unorganized manufacturing are among the key results of our analysis. On the positive side we find a strong growth in employment in the organised manufacturing sector and in the number and share of regular wage salary workers; and, a strong growth in labour productivity and in real wages. We also find an across the board reduction in the proportion and count of the working poor between 2005 and 2010. These improvements in quality of employment must temper our disappointment with the small growth in the size of the workforce. In this paper, we examine the interplay of demographic change, schooling and labour force participation decisions and the changes in the economy shaping the size and structure of employment and the resultant impacts on labour productivity,