A study on fuel options for power generation in Thailand

Abstract

This study focuses on the impact of utilizing gas, coal and nuclear energy for long-term power generation on generation cost, emission and resource availability. A scenario-based energy accounting model has been applied for creating long-term future scenarios. A baseline scenario has been created on the basis of the existing power development plan (PDP). Three alternative scenarios of coal, nuclear and gas options have been projected for the period beyond the PDP, i.e. 2022-2030. The results indicate that nuclear energy has high potential for GHG mitigation and cost reduction. For the coal option, the benefit of cost reduction would be diminished at carbon prices above 40 USD/ton. However, clean technology development as well as the momentum of global trends will be the key factor for coal utilization. The results also show the need of fuel diversification, in terms of depletion of the natural gas reserves depletion. It is clearly seen that the natural gas supply in Thailand will inevitably depend very much on the LNG imports in the long term. Hence, the attraction of natural gas in terms of cheap domestic resource utilization will vanish.