New methodological developments in FTA

Abstract

This chapter describes new methodological developments in FTA reported at both the First and Second FTA Seminars. We offer some perspective. This chapter is being prepared as part of the synthesis of knowledge gained especially from the Second Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Seminar (2006). However, with respect to new methods, we incorporate considerable material from the First FTA Seminar (2004 EU-US Seminar) because its theme was new methods. We intend this chapter as an aid to the reader scanning for suitable technology intelligence, forecasting, assessment, roadmapping, or foresight tools. The foundation papers for the First FTA Seminar noted several important drivers that imply the need for new methods. Coates et al. (2001) observed that FTA had emerged from an extended dormancy with an upsurge in new forms and incipient new tools in the 1990's. They perceived several potent changes and challenges for FTA: 1. Changes in the nature of technological change with increasingly science-based innovation 2. Shift in the prime drivers of technological innovation from the more narrowly technical concerns of Soviet-American Cold War military systems to industrial competitiveness concerns requiring inclusion of socio-economic contextual influences 3. Renewed attention to societal outcomes (and sustainability) 4. Opportunities to exploit electronic information resources to enrich FTA 5. Better capabilities to address complexity in technological innovation © 2008 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.