Solar assisted power generation system in hot desert climate: A cost-benefit perspective

Abstract

With the increasing global concerns about greenhouse gas emissions caused by the extensive use of fossil fuels, many countries are investing in the deployment of clean energy sources. The utilization of abundant solar energy is one of the fastest growing deployed renewable sources due its technological maturity and economic competitivity. In addition to the report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), many studies have suggested that the maturity of solar energy systems will continue to develop, which will increase their economic viability. The focus of analysis in this paper is countries with hot desert climates since they are the best candidates for solar energy systems. The capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, is used as the case study due to the country's ambitious goals in this field. The main purpose of this study is to comprehensively analyze the stochastic behavior and probabilistic distribution of solar irradiance in order to accurately estimate the expected power output of solar systems. A solar photovoltaic (PV) module is used for the analysis due to its practicality and widespread use in utility-scale projects. In addition to the use of a break-even analysis to estimate the economic viability of solar PV systems in hot desert climates, this paper estimates the indifference point at which the economic feasibility of solar PV systems is justified, compared with the fossil-based systems. The numerical results show that the break-even point of installing one KW generation capacity of a solar PV system is estimated to pay off after producing 16,827 KWh, compared to 15,422 KWh for the case of fossil-based systems. However, the increased cost of initial investment in solar PV systems deployment starts to be economically justified after producing 41,437 KWh.