Russia’s Strategic Outlook and Policies: What Role for China?

Abstract

This examination deals with the mental maps and basic assumptions underlying Russia’s foreign policy and how these relate to China. I will take issue with the narrative, advanced in particular by Kremlin officials and pro-Putin apologists in the West, that Russia’s “pivot to Asia,” with China as its centerpiece, can be understood as the consequence of the West having rejected Putin’s outstretched hand for close cooperation, Russia’s exclusion from an all-European security structure by pushing NATO’s eastward expansion, and finally the imposition of economic sanctions. This, to complete the account, had left Russia with no other option but to turn to Asia. Such interpretations will be shown to be fundamentally flawed. Putin’s China policies fit squarely into both the Russian power elite’s global strategic outlook and its narrow perception of what is needed to hold on to power domestically. The benefits accruing to Russia from its liaison with China can be found in military, economic, and systemic dimensions, and they are for the most part asymmetric in favor of the Kremlin. The asymmetries may cause problems in the future, but for the time being, they are carefully managed so that they will not spin out of control.