Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

Abstract

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes