Spatio-temporal trends of hydrological components: The case of the Tafna basin (Northwestern Algeria)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase in the future in the Mediterranean region, including Algeria. The Tafna basin, vulnerable to drought, is one of the most important catchments ensuring water self-sufficiency in northwestern Algeria. The objective of this study is to estimate the evolution of hydrological components of the Tafna basin, throughout 2020–2099, compared to the period 1981–2000. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), calibrated and validated on the Tafna basin with good Nash at the outlet 0.82, is applied to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological components over the basin throughout 2020–2099. The application is produced using a precipitation and temperature minimum/maximum of an ensemble of climate model outputs obtained from a combination of eight global climate models and two regional climate models of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The results of this study show that the decrease of precipitation in January, on average 25%, ranged between 5% and 44% in the future period. This diminution affects all of the water components and fluxes of a watershed, namely, in descending order of impact: the river discharge causing a decrease 36%, the soil water available 31%, the evapotranspiration 30%, and the lateral flow 29%.