A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville

Abstract

The seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods occur (≈ 200 years). This exceeds the life of various generations, making the population unacquainted with the seismic hazard. On the one hand, this results in a low demanding seismic code which increases the seismic vulnerability and, therefore, the seismic risk. On the other hand, the local emergency services must be properly prepared to face a destructive seismic event, with emergency plans and mitigation strategies. This assumption enhances the need of assessing the seismic risk of Seville in a civil protection context. For all the aforementioned and for the lack of instrumental data of relevant earthquakes, the assessment of the seismic hazard in this area is challenging. To do this, seismogenic zones of the new seismic hazard map of Spain have been used as sources. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for each scenario has been calculated by means of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). To estimate the site effects, in a 1D model environment, a shear wave velocity (Vs) map of the top 5 m has been depicted based on the standard penetration test (SPT). Seville’s building stock has been classified in agreement with the previous works in Lorca and Barcelona to determine its vulnerability. The main goal of this work was to investigate the influence of the soil amplification on the seismic behaviour of different building typologies. Therefore, the final target was to plot the damage scenarios expected in Seville under a maximum credible earthquake by means of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). As outputs, the scenario modelled showed that around 27 000 buildings would experience a moderate damage and that 26 000 would suffer pre-collapse or even collapse. Thus, approximately 10% of the population would lose their dwellings. Regarding the human loses, around 22 000 people would suffer serious injuries and approximately 5 000 people would die. Owing to these conclusions, this research evidences the crucial need by civil protection services to implement a local emergency plan as a tool to mitigate the probable consequences that arise from this threat.