Application of statistical methods to predict beach inundation at the polish baltic sea coast

Abstract

In coastal zones, interactions between oceans and lands are very dynamic. Coastal and flood protection has a great importance for the safety of people. One of the approaches to predict beach inundation is to use simple empirical equations which have been successfully adopted by the coastal engineering branch. This research is focused on the application of wave run-up formulas (R2) to predict beach inundation at the Polish Baltic Sea coast. Nine R2 formulas were tested in six cross-sections at the beaches in Międzyzdroje, Ustronie Morskie, Sarbinowo, Darłówko, Lubiatowo and Dębki. Sea level elevation from tide-gauges and wave conditions from WAM model were used. The range of temporary seal level was from −0.29 to 0.39 m above mean sea level elevation defined as −0.08 m in Kronsztadt-86 Ordnance Datum. Maximum wave height was about 2.63 m and wave period was between 2.01 and 7.63 s. The results showed one extreme wave run-up (R2) formula as percentage values which gave proper visual adjustment without overestimation and underestimation and statistically significant correlation (with 95% confidence level) in Sarbinowo (0.79), Lubiatowo (0.60) and Ustronie Morskie (0.49).