A framework of multi-method modelling using system dynamics and enhanced analytic hierarchy process towards the solution for tobacco endgame

Abstract

Tobacco endgame is hotly debated worldwide as one of the effort by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) towards tobacco-free future. Tobacco epidemic involve dynamic interrelationships between multi-disciplinary elements. Hence, it become increasingly difficult to identify the root of the problem in order to solve the issues. System dynamics (SD) has been recognized with its ability to capture the flow and feedback as well as the dynamic relationships between components in a system under study. The holistic view offered by SD will portray the impact of anti-smoking strategies implementation. In order to identify the driving forces in tobacco epidemic, Enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (EAHP) has advantages over normal Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on its capability to eliminate inconsistency in prioritizing the driving forces in tobacco epidemic which is the initiation factors of smoking. SD and EAHP have different strengths and weaknesses, therefore, integrating both modelling approaches will provide more realistic projections of a tobacco control system. This paper uses SD and EAHP to model the complexity of the problem and to identify the dominant linkages between the initiation factors and anti-smoking strategies in assessing the effectiveness of anti-smoking strategies that have been implemented in Malaysia. We proposed a multi-method modelling framework that served as a basis in understanding the complexity of tobacco epidemic due to the interconnections of multiple elements that may range from qualitative to quantitative aspects. Also, we describe the potential benefits of integrating SD and EAHP in demonstrating the interaction between the smoking causes (initiation factors) and its corrector (anti-smoking strategies).