Numerical modelling for tsunami wave propagation (case study: Manado bays)

Abstract

The north arm of Sulawesi is one of the most vulnerable areas of the earthquake and tsunami. This region is a meeting place for several tectonic plates such as the Indo-Australian Plate, the Pacific Plate, the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. As a result, collisions of the plates, subduction zones are formed in this region. The North of Sulawesi subduction zone and Molluca double subduction zone are sources of earthquakes that can generate tsunamis in the region. This study aims to examine the potential tsunami hazard on the north coast of Sulawesi's northern arms specifically in the Manado bays. Data were collected from various tsunami catalogues and literature review to determine the input parameters. The modelling is done by using TUNAMI N2 software which is a tsunami modelling using shallow water wave theory. The simulation results show that the tsunami wave height that can hit the Manado beaches varies from about 1.5 to 3 meters, while the tsunami propagation time from the source to the beach is about 24 minutes after earthquake.