Time Series Analysis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates Using a Bayesian Markov Switching Cointegration Model

Abstract

This paper examines the US term structure of interest rates using a Bayesian Markov switching cointegration model that allows the cointegrating vectors, the number of cointegrating rank, the risk premium, and other parameters to change when regime shifts. We find that for any pair of the interest rates there is a strong support for the cointegrating implication of the expectation hypothesis at least in a stable regime, while for some pairs of the interest rates the cointegration does not occur in a high volatility regime. We find that a Markov switching cointegration model captures regime shifts that are corresponding to high inflation regime. In high inflation regime, variance is much higher for both the long and short rates and adjustment toward equilibrium is much faster than those in the other regime.