Projected numbers of primary total knee replacement in Austria from 2015–2075

Abstract

Background: In 2012 and 2013 Austria had the highest rate of primary total knee replacements (TKR) amongst all European countries. This study was carried out to project the numbers of TKR and its associated costs in Austria into the year 2075. Methods: Demographic data and population projections between 2011–2075 were obtained from European and Austrian authorities. Information about the present incidence of primary TKRs was obtained from the Austrian Prosthesis Register. Current TKR associated costs were obtained from federal healthcare insurances as well as federal and state admission agencies. Projections were stratified by age and gender and given for the lower, most likely and upper scenarios. Results: Overall cost for the group of patients with primary TKR will increase by 50% for males and 32% for females by 2075. This increase is primarily driven by the increase in the population of men aged 80–90 years and 90+ years leading to an increase of 190% and 567% of the TKR associated costs. In comparison, women in these age groups are estimated to have an increase in TKR costs by 108% and 243%. Conclusion: These numbers represent a substantial socioeconomic burden to the Austrian society in the near and distant future due to the upcoming demographic changes. The presented results have their limitation in the unpredictable nature of assumptions but might guide Austrian and other European authorities in their efforts to provide more cost-effective and more directed care for patients in need of primary TKR surgery.