External forcing of the early 20th century Arctic warming

Abstract

18 The observed Arctic warming during the early 20th century was comparable to present-day 19 warming in terms of magnitude. The causes and mechanisms for the early 20th century Arctic 20 warming are less clear and need to be better understood when considering projections of future 21 22 climate change in the Arctic. The simulations using the Bergen Climate Model can reproduce the surface air temperature fluctuations in the Arctic during the 20th century reasonably well. The 23 results presented here, based on the model simulations and observations, indicate that intensified 24 25 26 27 28 solar radiation and a lull in volcanic activity during the 1920s–1950s can explain much of the early 20th century Arctic warming. The anthropogenic forcing could play a role in getting the timing of the peak warming correct. According to the model the local solar irradiation changes play a crucial role in driving the Arctic early 20th century warming. The surface air temperature co-varied closely with local solar irradiation changes when natural external forcings are included 29 in the model either alone or in combination with anthropogenic external forcings. The increased 30 Barents Sea warm inflow and the anomalous atmosphere circulation patterns in the northern 31 Europe and north Atlantic can also contribute to the warming. In summary the early 20th century 32 warming was largely externally forced.