Inflammatory indexes in preoperative blood routine to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative hepatectomy

Abstract

Background: The inflammation indexes in blood routine play an essential role in evaluating the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, but the effect on early recurrence has not been clarified. The study aimed to investigate the risk factors of early recurrence (within 2 years) and recurrence-free survival after curative hepatectomy and explore the role of inflammatory indexes in predicting early recurrence. Methods: The baseline data of 161 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. The optimal cut-off value of the inflammatory index was determined according to the Youden index. Its predictive performance was compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors of early recurrence and recurrence-free survival. Results: The area under the curve of monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR) for predicting early recurrence was 0.700, which was better than systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII). MLR, tumour size, tumour differentiation and BCLC stage are all risk factors for early recurrence and recurrence-free survival of HCC. Combining the above four risk factors to construct a joint index, the area under the curve for predicting early recurrence was 0.829, which was better than single MLR, tumour size, tumour differentiation and BCLC stage. Furthermore, with the increase of risk factors, the recurrence-free survival of patients is worse. Conclusion: The combination of MLR and clinical risk factors is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk patients with early recurrence and carry out active postoperative adjuvant therapy to improve the prognosis of patients.