Declining Age-Specific Seroprevalence and Seroconversion Rates in Plasmodium falciparum from 2009 to 2018 Documents Progress toward Malaria Elimination in Southern Zambia

Abstract

Obtaining accurate malaria surveillance data is challenging in low-transmission settings because large sample sizes are required to estimate incidence and prevalence precisely. Serology is an additional tool to document progress toward malaria elimination. An enzyme immunoassay to Plasmodium falciparum lysate was used to estimate age-specific seroprevalence among residents of southern Zambia, where malaria transmission has declined to pre-elimination levels during the past two decades. Plasma was eluted from 3,362 dried blood spots collected during five cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2009 and 2012, and again in 2018. Annual seroconversion rates (SCRs), an estimate of the force of infection, were calculated using a reversible catalytic model. The SCR decreased by two thirds from a level of approximately 0.15/year in 2009 and 2010 to approximately 0.05/year in 2011 and 2012, and then decreased 5-fold to 0.01/year by 2018, demonstrating the utility of serology in documenting progress toward elimination.