How unstable are complex financial systems? analyzing an inter-bank network of credit relations

Abstract

The recent worldwide economic crisis of 2007-09 has focused attention on the need to analyze systemic risk in complex financial networks. We investigate the problem of robustness of such systems in the context of the general theory of dynamical stability in complex networks and, in particular, how the topology of connections influence the risk of the failure of a single institution triggering a cascade of successive collapses propagating through the network. We use data on bilateral liabilities (or exposure) in the derivatives market between 202 financial intermediaries based in USA and Europe in the last quarter of 2009 to empirically investigate the network structure of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market.We observe that the network exhibits both heterogeneity in node properties and the existence of communities. It also has a prominent core-periphery organization and can resist large-scale collapse when subjected to individual bank defaults (however, failure of any bank in the core may result in localized collapse of the innermost core with substantial loss of capital) but is vulnerable to system-wide breakdown as a result of an accompanying liquidity crisis. © Springer-Verlag Italia 2013.