Phenotyping of atrial fibrillation with cluster analysis and external validation

Abstract

Objectives Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a heterogeneous condition. We performed a cluster analysis in a cohort of patients with AF and assessed the prognostic implication of the identified cluster phenotypes. Methods We used two multicentre, prospective, observational registries of AF: the SAKURA AF registry (Real World Survey of Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated with Warfarin and Non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants) (n=3055, derivation cohort) and the RAFFINE registry (Registry of Japanese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Focused on anticoagulant therapy in New Era) (n=3852, validation cohort). Cluster analysis was performed by the K-prototype method with 14 clinical variables. The endpoints were all-cause mortality and composite cardiovascular events. Results The analysis subclassified derivation cohort patients into five clusters. Cluster 1 (n=414, 13.6%) was characterised by younger men with a low prevalence of comorbidities; cluster 2 (n=1003, 32.8%) by a high prevalence of hypertension; cluster 3 (n=517, 16.9%) by older patients without hypertension; cluster 4 (n=652, 21.3%) by the oldest patients, who were mainly female and with a high prevalence of heart failure history; and cluster 5 (n=469, 15.3%) by older patients with high prevalence of diabetes and ischaemic heart disease. During follow-up, the risk of all-cause mortality and composite cardiovascular events increased across clusters (log-rank p<0.001, p<0.001). Similar results were found in the external validation cohort. Conclusions Machine learning-based cluster analysis identified five different phenotypes of AF with unique clinical characteristics and different clinical outcomes. The use of these phenotypes may help identify high-risk patients with AF.