Utilizing machine learning for survival analysis to identify risk factors for COVID-19 intensive care unit admission: A retrospective cohort study from the United Arab Emirates

Abstract

Background The current situation of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) as an innovative tool for addressing the evolving clinical challenges. An example is utilizing Machine Learning (ML) models—a subfield of AI that take advantage of observational data/Electronic Health Records (EHRs) to support clinical decision-making for COVID-19 cases. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 patients in the United Arab Emirates utilizing EHRs and ML for survival analysis models. Methods We tested various ML models for survival analysis in this work we trained those models using a different subset of features extracted by several feature selection methods. Finally, the best model was evaluated and interpreted using goodness-of-fit based on calibration curves,Partial Dependence Plots and concordance index. Results The risk of severe disease increases with elevated levels of C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, Modified Early Warning Score, respiratory rate and troponin. The risk also increases with hypokalemia, oxygen desaturation and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and hypocalcemia and lymphopenia. Conclusion Analyzing clinical data using AI models can provide vital information for clinician to measure the risk of morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 patients. Further validation is crucial to implement the model in real clinical settings.