How Can Teachers Build Notions of Conditional Probability and Independence?

Abstract

How can teachers build notions of conditional probability and independence? In this chapter the authors explore middle school students' probabilistic thinking in conditional probability and independence and argue that these concepts are both important and appropriate learning for the middle school curriculum. Following interpretations of conditional probability and independence, there is an examination of the emergence of these concepts in the school curriculum and and a presentation of arguments in favor of their inclusion. The chapter highlights research relating to middle school students' conceptions and misconceptions about conditional probability and independence and analyzes student strategies in dealing with these concepts prior to instruction. There is also a review of research that traces students' thinking in conditional probability and independence during instruction. Finally, implications are drawn for teaching and learning conditional probability and independence in the middle school.