Predictive Model of Births and Deaths with ARIMA

Abstract

The paper show the application of the ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) prediction model is made, which consists of the use of statistical data (in this case, birth and deaths in Colombia) to formulate a system in which an approximation of future data is obtained, this thanks to the help of a statistical software that allows us to interact with the variables of this model to observe a behavior as accurately as possible, the research source was extracted from the statistical data provided by the national statistical department, articles about cases in the that this method was used, and statistical texts. The development of the research was carried out observing the statistics provided by national statistical department, creating a database of births and deaths in Colombia per year, taking into account total figures at the national and departmental levels. Thanks to these data, a tool such as software and prior knowledge of the predictive model ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) is achieved to make an approximate prediction of what could happen in a given time, thus taking the measures required by each department, solving possible problems in the country.