A first high-resolution open access data and open source gis model-prediction for the globally threatened sarus crane (antigone antigone) in Nepal: Data mining of 81 predictors support evidence for ongoing declines in distribution and abundance

Abstract

The Sarus crane (Antigone antigone) is a spiritual bird and of great cultural value affecting landscape management, e.g. in the Lumbini area, birthplace of lord Buddha; this species is also one of the tallest flying birds of the world. Range declines have been reported, while population estimates remain little studied. Based on 81 GIS predictors we are able to assess interdependencies and can present the first predicted Open Source Open Access maps for Sarus crane in Terai, Nepal, using multi-year field data and best publicly available ‘presence only’ data. Our models include occurrence (presence/absence, Species Distribution Models SDMs) as well as abundance (Species Abundance Models SAMs) and they show good accuracies. The model showed reduced ranges for this species, specifically in southcentral and southeastern Nepal. However, The model predicted high abundances for the breeding population occurrences that exceed previous estimates. Justifications are provided for detection biases and non-breeders, for those estimates, and suggest an action plan for a better, science-based species management. These models and underlying data are freely available for further use and model improvement, which we encourage. We suggest more research is to be done with those presented concepts as a good template to advance conservation worldwide.