Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework

Abstract

Recent heat waves have been a matter of serious concern for India because of potential impacts on agriculture, food security, and socioeconomic progress. This study examines the trends and variability in frequency, duration, and intensity of hot episodes during three time periods (1951-2013, 1981-2013 and 1998-2013) by defining heat waves based on the percentile of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. The study also explores heat waves and their relationships with hydroclimatic variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature. Results reveal that the number, frequency, and duration of daytime heat waves increased considerably during the post-1980 dry and hot phase over a large area. The densely populated and agriculturally dominated northern half of India stands out as a key region where the nighttime heat wave metrics reflected the most pronounced amplifications. Despite the recent warming hiatus in India and other parts of the world, we find that both daytime and nighttime extreme measures have undergone substantial changes during or in the year following a dry year since 2002, with the probability distribution functions manifesting a hotter-than-normal climate during 1998-2013. This study shows that a few months preceding the 2010 record-breaking heat wave in Russia, India experienced the largest hot episode in the country’s history. Interestingly, both these mega events are comparable in terms of their evolution and amplification. These findings emphasize the importance of planning for strategies in the context of the rising cooccurrence of dry and hot events. Plain Language Summary Consistent with model projection and physical understanding, the multiaspect framework of heat wave and warm spells exhibits clear spatial and temporal patterns. Most perceptible change in heat waves is observed during the post-1998 warming hiatus period, mainly exacerabated by droughts. The 2009-2010 drought and heat wave in India can be compared with that of the 2010 record-breaking Russian hot episode in terms of evolution and amplification.