Global agreements and US forestry: Genetically modified trees

Abstract

This article suggests that for transgenic trees to have an opportunity to have a major impact on global production requires that they be developed, deregulated, and commercialized. One question is what effect international agreements may have on this process. The "Cartagena Protocol on Bio-safety to the Convention of Biological Diversity," recently ratified by almost 100 nations, requires the labeling of live bio-products, such as transgenic crop or tree seed and other live germplasm, and the IPPC, which is created to secure common and effective action to prevent the spread and introduction of pests of plants and plant products. In addition, the WTO often becomes involved in trading issues related to transgenics. All of the above agreements could come to have an effect on international aspects of US forestry and tree GMO development and dissemination. This article discusses potential impacts of these agreements and other regulatory barriers to commercialization of transgenic trees in international trade in (1) transgenic wood and (2) transgenic tree germplasm. There is little reason to believe that transgenic wood flows would be seriously negatively impacted because industrial wood products would not be a health and safety issue, nor would they involve live modified materials, nor would they present pest issues. Hence, under the existing system, the use of transgenic wood in products is likely to be widespread. However, several of these barriers could provide a significant obstacle to the international flow of transgenic tree germplasm. This could result in a world where the wood commodity was actively traded but the technology, e.g., transgenic seeds and germplasm, might be far less actively transacted internationally. However, to the extent that transgenic trees provide low-cost and perhaps superior wood, some regions will have a strong financial incentive to adopt the technology. This could provide an additional shift in wood-producing comparative advantage to the countries and firms that adopt transgenic trees. Thus, one can envision a world in which wo od production specialization becomes even more intense with a few high wood productivity countries that have adopted the latest transgenic technology, increasing their share of the wood-producing suppliers.