Projected changes in frequency of suitable snowmaking conditions for the Australian Alps

Abstract

Observations have shown a clear increase in maximum and minimum temperature, and a decrease in rainfall and snow for the Australian Alps. Available future snow projections from different projects also demonstrate decreases in snow cover, snow depth and snow season in the future. In order to adapt to declining natural snow cover, snow making is playing an increasing role to sustain the ski industry. The viability of conventional snowmaking is determined by the frequency of wet-bulb temperatures suitable for making snow. In this study, we used outputs of 12 historical and future Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in frequency of suitable snowmaking condition for the Australia Alps. The number of hours suitable for snowmaking was calculated (based on threshold temperatures, such as -2 oC) for a historic period (1990-2009) and two future periods (2020-2039 and 2060-2079) for each of the 12 simulations. These time periods were compared to investigate if the frequency of suitable snowmaking changes into the future. The results show that there is a substantial decrease in the frequency of suitable snowmaking conditions for the Australian Alps, with some areas showing larger decreases than others. The major differences between the projections are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large scale circulation plays a dominant role in the variation of snowmaking conditions.