Z-value based risk assessment: The case of tourism sector

Abstract

In this study we are analyzing potentialities of the Z-numbers in improving the quality of risk assessment. Rel0iability of relevant information is unaccounted for in many risk assessment approaches and this circumstance limits the descriptive power of the current approaches. Suggested by L. Zadeh a bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) allows to take into account the reliability of information. Usually, A and B are perception-based and in effect are imprecise. Z-value based risk assessment framework for the tourist sector is proposed. A general and computationally effective approach suggested for computations with Z-numbers can be utilized for risk factors estimation. Efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated by country-specific examples.