Five year prediction of the number of hurricanes that make united states landfall

Abstract

The insurance industryis interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of models developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. to make such predictions. These models represent a broad spectrum of view-points to be used as a basis for an expert elicitation. © 2009 Springer-Verlag US.