Introduction

Abstract

The Earth is clearly warming. Mounting evidence from around the globe has removed virtually any serious doubt over this fact, and also over whether the main culprit is human emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). These emissions have been the product of a march towards better economic living standards, and for much of the world this march has led people out of a life of hunger and poverty and into one of relative comfort and security. But many have been left behind, and roughly 1 billion people continue to live under poverty and with insecure access to food. In an average day, more than 20,000 children die from hunger related causes. A large majority of the world’s poor continue to live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Given that agriculture everywhere remains dependent on weather, changes in climate have the potential to disproportionally affect these poor populations. But what, precisely, will human-induced climate changes mean for the globe’s billion poor? How will climate change interact with the many other factors that affect the future of food production and food security? There are no easy answers to these questions. That fact, of course, does not stop people from making simple predictions based on ideology, such as that innovation and free market responses will avoid any damages, or that climate change will wreak havoc on humans. Theory alone cannot refute either of these extreme positions, as there are no obvious reasons why that the pace of climate change caused by human activity should or should not match the pace with which we are able to adapt food production systems. Rather, the issue at hand is an empirical one, and finding answers will require a cadre of scientists capable of collecting and analyzing the relevant data, and policy makers and citizens capable of understanding their implications.