Utilization of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria in predicting mortality among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department

Abstract

Background: Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria are often used to evaluate the risk of sepsis and to identify in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected infection. However, utilization of the SIRS criteria in mortality prediction among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED) remains unclear. Therefore, we conducted a research to delineate this issue. Methods: This is a retrospective case-control study including geriatric patients (age ≥ 65 years) with influenza, who presented to the ED of a medical center between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Vital signs, past history, subtype of influenza, demographic data, and outcomes were collected from all patients and analyzed. We calculated the accuracy for predicting 30-days mortality using the SIRS criteria. We also performed covariate adjustment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) via regression modeling. Results: We recruited a total of 409 geriatric patients in the ED, with mean age 79.5 years and an equal sex ratio. The mean SIRS criteria score was 1.9 ± 1.1. The result of a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.34 for SIRS criteria. SIRS criteria score ≥ 3 showed better mortality prediction, with odds ratio (OR) 3.37 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-10.73); SIRS score ≥ 2 showed no statistical significance, with p = 0.85 (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.28-4.69). SIRS score ≥ 3 had acceptable 30-days mortality discrimination, with AUROC 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87) after adjustment. SIRS score ≥ 3 also had a notable negative predictive value of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-0.99). Conclusion: The presence of a higher number of SIRS criteria (≥ 3) showed greater accuracy for predicting mortality among geriatric patients with influenza.