Rainfall Variability and Trend Analysis of Multiannual Rainfall in Romanian Plain

Abstract

The IPCC climate models predict, for the Central Europe, are for climate changes, being seen variability of temperature, with a growing trend of 1-2,5° C (with 1° C for alpine zone – Carpathians and 2-2,5° C for plains). Current observations in the Romanian plain are not consistent, with an existence of a multiannual variability of temperature and precipitations depending on cyclonal and anti-ciclonal activity. The research is based on calculation of reduced centered index, also the graphical chronological method in information processing (MGCTI) of „Bertin Matrix” type, to show current trends of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in the context of global climate change. These are in line with the movement of air masses in Europe in general, and implicitly in Romania, with particular regard to the southern region of the country where the Romanian Plain. The variability of short-term global climate is generally associated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in the world, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climate model dominant in the North Atlantic region. The latter cyclic oscillation whose role is still under debate could explain the variability of rainfall in much of the, central Europe area, and support the hypothesis of a return of the rains marking the end of years of drought in Romanian plain. Faced with such great changes that today affect the central Europe region and given the complexity of spatial and temporal dimensions of the climatic signal, a more thorough research of causes and retroactions would allow for a better understanding of the mechanisms behind this new trend.