Modelling to contain pandemic influenza A (H1N1) with stochastic membrane systems: A work-in-progress paper

Abstract

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has spread rapidly across the globe. In the event of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), decision-makers are required to act in the face of substantial uncertainties. Simulation models can be used to project the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Since nature is very complex, the perfect model that explains it will be complex too. Membrane system (P system) can be a perfect model modelling ecological system. This paper briefly describes stochastic membrane systems for modelling spread of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in an isolated geographical region. The model is based on a discrete and stochastic modelling framework in the area of Membrane Computing. This model can be a useful tool for the prediction of infectious diseases within predefined areas, and the evaluation of intervention strategies. © 2012 ICST Institute for Computer Science, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering.