Decadal Prediction of Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity Over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Attaining skillful decadal predictions for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) emerges as a formidable challenge, mainly stemming from the limited prediction skills of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) within the state-of-the-art models. Assessing sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models' retrospective predictions finds that the predictability of PDV transcends the expectations set by raw forecasts featured by constrained temporal skills and low signal-to-noise ratio. Employing a refined approach, we selectively identify the models that capture the diverse phases of PDV and subsequently adjust their variances. This tailored approach yields a compelling concordance between the predicted PDV and observation in phases and variances. Anchored in the heightened prediction skill of PDV, we establish a sophisticated statistical model adept at predicting the latitude of TC's lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). The near-term prediction indicates a sustained poleward migration of LMI latitude by 1.53° during 2020–2027, increasing subtropical East Asia's TC-related disaster vulnerability in the coming decade.