Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Scoring Model of Infections Due to Acinetobacter baumannii in Patients with Hospital Acquired Pneumonia by Gram-Negative Bacilli

Abstract

Background: The prognosis of ABA-HAP patients is very poor. This study aimed to develop a scoring model to predict ABA-HAP in patients with GNB-HAP. Methods: A single center retrospective cohort study was performed among patients with HAP caused by GNB in our hospital during January 2019 to June 2019 (the derivation cohort, DC). The variables were assessed on the day when qualified respiratory specimens were obtained. A prediction score was formulated by using independent risk factors obtained from logistic regression analysis. It was prospectively validated with a subsequent cohort of GNB-HAP patients admitted to our hospital during July 2019 to Dec 2019 (the validation cohort, VC). Results: The final logistic regression model of DC included the following variables: transferred from other hospitals (3 points); blood purification (3 points); risk for aspiration (4 points); immunocompromised (3 points); pulmonary interstitial fibrosis (3 points); pleural effusion (1 points); heart failure (3 points); encephalitis (5 points); increased monocyte count (2 points); and increased neutrophils count (2 points). The AUROC of the scoring model was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.796 ~ 0.895) in DC and 0.807 (95% CI, 0.759 ~ 0.856) in VC. The scoring model clearly differentiated the low-risk patients (the score < 8 points), moderate-risk patients (8 ≤ the score < 12 points) and high-risk patients (the score ≥ 12 points), both in DC (P < 0.001) and in VC (P < 0.001). Conclusion: This simple scoring model could predict ABA-HAP with high predictive value and help clinicians to choose appropriate empirical antibiotic therapy.