Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in France using the temporal pattern of hepatocellular carcinoma deaths

Abstract

Deuffic et al. developed a compartmentalized model that characterized the evolution and spread of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) within France. There were various parameters defining the age- and sex-dependent transition probabilities between chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis in need of determination to completely specify their model. These were estimated by means of a weighted least-squares procedure that was executed numerically. The objective function used was based on the distribution of the age at death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) rather than the temporal pattern of deaths due to HCC from 1979 to 1995. In this report, we investigate the impact of using an objective function based on the temporal pattern of deaths. We show that the dynamics of the epidemic can be quite different, in particular, short-term prediction of HCC deaths by HCV infection and times to death from onset of disease.