Measure of the resilience to Spanish economic crisis: the role of specialization

Abstract

Forecasting regional variables provides very important information for political, institutional and economic agents. In this paper, we use predictions from spatial panel data models to evaluate regional resilience to the present economic crisis in terms of annual growth rate of employment. Furthermore, we evaluate whether specialization plays a significant role in the degree of resilience to the economic crisis suffered in Spain from 2007. Results show that while specialization in energy and manufacturing, construction or finance and other activities in the tertiary sector decreases resilience to the crisis, specialization in distribution, transport and common services enlarges the availability of returning to his pre-shock growth path. Furthermore, those regions specialized in distribution, transport and common services and agriculture are even super-resilience to the crisis. Keywords: