An external validation study of the Utah Bleeding Risk Score

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVAD) impairs quality of life and increases hospitalization rate. The Utah Bleeding Risk Score (UBRS) has been created to predict gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in patients on left ventricular assist device. We here aimed to externally validate UBRS on our cohort of CF-LVAD patients. METHODS: Utah Bleeding Risk Score was calculated, GIB events summarized on follow-up and patients stratified into 3 risk groups. Predictive ability of UBRS was examined at 3 years and during whole support time and person time incidence rates correlated to UBRS. In a sub-analysis, single effects of UBRS variables on freedom from GIB were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 111 CF-LVAD patients were included. The median UBRS was 2 (3-1). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.519 (P = 0.758, 95% confidence interval = 0.422-0.615) at 3 years and an area under the curve of 0.515 (P = 0.797, 95% confidence interval = 0.418-0.611) during whole support time. No significant difference was observed in UBRS between bleeders and non-bleeders (P = 0.80). No significant difference in freedom from GIB was observed (P3 years = 0.7; Psupport-time = 0.816) and no independent significance regarding the freedom from bleeding at 3 years for any variable was observed. Coronary artery disease was associated with higher risk of GIB beyond the 3rd year (P = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: UBRS was not able to predict GIB and therefore not applicable in our cohort of patients. Coronary artery disease could lead to a higher risk for GIB during support time. An additional validation in a larger cohort is advisable.