The Feasibility and Governance of Cyclone Interventions

Abstract

Climate change is worsening cyclone disaster risk. Current risk reduction responses focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure. However, these approaches are not keeping up with climate change. Intervening in the cyclone hazard itself has the potential to prevent deaths and destruction, and reduce the costs of disaster recovery. We provide a technical review of these interventions. This unifies an otherwise sparse and disconnected literature, providing a starting point for further discussion by academics and policymakers. Potential interventions include cloud seeding, using pipes to inject cool water into cyclone hotspots, injecting particles into the upper atmosphere and atmospheric aerosol injections. Approaches have different logistical requirements, side effects and promise. Understanding the effectiveness and associated risks of different interventions will inform prudent cyclone risk management and research. Our review points to the promise of aerosol injection and high-altitude particle injection as first research directions. We also discuss potential governance risks and requirements of cyclone interventions. Cyclone interventions raise many issues, ranging from robust monitoring of ecological side effects, to geopolitics and politicisation. Current international climate governance is ill-suited for potential technologies on the horizon. Good decision-making is required to maximise benefits and reduce negative impacts. Cyclone interventions could be a potentially transformative response to climate change, and should be a priority for future research.