Comparison of Siberian paleovegetation to current and future vegetation under climate change

Abstract

To see if the Holocene optimum (4600 to 6000 yr before present) is an analogue for predicted future climate, a comparison was made between Siberian paleovegetation for this Late Atlantic Period and predicted Siberian vegetation under climate change. Siberian paleovegetation is also compared to a current landscape map of Siberia. The Siberian Vegetation Model was used to estimate Siberian vegetation under climate change scenarios resulting from CO2 doubling. Both visual and statistical analysis of the maps indicate that the warm period known as the Holocene optimum does not provide a good analogy to predicted future warming. Although the predicted rise in temperature with future warming is similar to the Holocene optimum, the predicted precipitation is much less, resulting in much more temperate forest-steppe vegetation than the forest vegetation found in the past. The current climatic regime is cooler and more severe than 4600 to 6000 yr ago. -from Authors