A toxicity prediction tool for potential agonist/antagonist activities in molecular initiating events based on chemical structures

Abstract

Because the health effects of many compounds are unknown, regulatory toxicology must often rely on the development of quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models to efficiently discover molecular initiating events (MIEs) in the adverse-outcome pathway (AOP) framework. However, the QSAR models used in numerous toxicity prediction studies are publicly unavailable, and thus, they are challenging to use in practical applications. Approaches that simultaneously identify the various toxic responses induced by a compound are also scarce. The present study develops Toxicity Predictor, a web application tool that comprehensively identifies potential MIEs. Using various chemicals in the Toxicology in the 21st Century (Tox21) 10K library, we identified potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) using a machine-learning approach. Based on the optimized three-dimensional (3D) molecular structures and XGBoost algorithm, we established molecular descriptors for QSAR models. Their predictive performances and applicability domain were evaluated and applied to Toxicity Predictor. The prediction performance of the constructed models matched that of the top model in the Tox21 Data Challenge 2014. These advanced prediction results for MIEs are freely available on the Internet.