Stochastic Approach on Forest Fire Spatial Distribution from Forest Accessibility in Forest Management Units, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

Abstract

This study explores stochastic approach to analyzing the forest fire spatial distribution from forest accessibility using 2-parameters Weibull distribution model. MODIS firespot data, as a proxy for forest fire location, from 2001 to 2012 was analyzed by correlating its spatial distribution with the distance from settlement and road/lake in 11 Forest Management Units (FMUs) in South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. The distribution parameters for 11 FMUs are αs = 5.45; βs = 1.42 for the distance from settlement and αrl = 0.87; βrl = 0.86 for the distance from road/lake. The forest fire spatial distribution equations are therefore from settlement and from road/lake, where x is the distance (km) from either settle- ment or road/lake. Further, a correlation was found between forest accessibility conditions and forest fire spatial distribution. The α- and β-parameters correlate to number of settlement (NS) and road intensity (RI) by (with R2 = 0.77; Fsig = 0.01); (with R2 = 0.65; Fsig = 0.03) for firespot spatial distribution from settlement and (with R2 = 0.57; Fsig = 0.01); (R2 = 0.33; FSig = 0.07) for firespot spatial distribution from road/lake. The stochastic approach using 2-parameters Weibull distribution model has a reliable and practical application on assessing forest fire spatial distribution from forest accessibility.